profile for Gajendra D Ambi on Stack Exchange, a network of free, community-driven Q&A sites

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

40% CAGR in 1 minute per day

This is the system that I am currently using for more than a year and I thought I should document this here. Reddit just auto removes, no thanks to lot of spammers/scammers who do this on a regular basis.

  1. Create a screener for X% CAGR so that it has not more than 30-40 stocks in it . Mine is set to 50%. It is market agnostic. Keep lowering your CAGR target or inreasing it, depending on how many are qualifieng your screener. Once it is set, dont keep modifieng it. Buy only 1 share of each stock. If there is a new stock which enters/qualifies this list, then you will get an email https://www.screener.in/screens/571258/50-over-5-years/ and you can buy only 1 share of that stock. 
  2. Every day, go to your portfolio, sort them in a descending order based on overall lifetime % gain, so the top most performing is on the top and the others are at the bottom. Now buy 1 share from each stock of the top 10 from this sorted list. I call this TSIP - Topper's systematic investment plan. Thats it. This step 2 which you do everyday will take less than a minute.

Now your top most performers will have the most of your investment and bottom most performers will have the least of your investment. 

Optional - option hedging. (half a minute per day)

  1. Pledge your holdings.
  2. Buy a CSR (call spread ratio) everyday against an index for the current month's and week's expiry. 
The only way you can incur losses is if the market goes up by 2% every day, in that case, your pledged stocks too would have gone up so your underlying investment would have made so much that your loss in options would have no significance. If the market goes down, then the CSR will generate profit, If the market stays at the same place then too the CSR will generate profit.

Retirement (Generational wealth):
  1. Buy a mutual fund which is performing as good or better than the index fund.
  2. Invest a lumsump amount X in the MF
  3. start a monthly SWP (systematic withdrawal plan) against this MF for 1% of the lumpsum/principal amount. If the principal amount was 100 INR then start a monthly SWP of 1 INR. 
This means, If your MF is growing at at-least 12%-15% a year then you are withdrawing only 12% a year, so your principle amount is always growing at a higher rate than your withdrawal via SWP. In a developing country like india, 20% a year in a largecap/flexicap; 30% for midcap, 40% for a smallcap isnt unheard of but you can be sure that they will collectively give atleast 20% a year on an average of about 5 years even if there was a market crash or unplanned world events like pandemic of 2020-21. This in gen z language is an infinite money glitch. You can pass this wealth setup to the next generation and every generation will have it bigger than the last one. Once in a 5 or 10 years you can readjust the SWP to the 1% of the principle value of the MF at that time to adjust your increased expenditure for inflation.

How do I choose my MFs? 
  1. Sort all MFs based on their 10 year returns, select the top 1 from each segment (flexicap/largecap, midcap, smallcap)
  2. skip any MFs from fund houses which don't have a good reputation.
  3. I use https://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/best-mutual-funds/?return-period=5Y&plan-type=2 this link, you can use whatever offers you this insight where you get to see a minimum of 10 year return, sort them based on their % return in a descending order.
  4. The max investment per MF is equivalent to the 1KG 24k gold. Go back to the list and sort them based on % return for 10 years. Select the top 1 in each category (flexi/large, mid, small) and start adding lumpsum to these MFs untill you reach 1kg24k gold's worth of investment. Invest in all 3 in 1:1:1 ratio (equal amount). 
If you have more to invest then repeat the steps 1-4. If not all 3/3 or 2/3, at least 1/3 of the new MFs that you chose will be the same as the one that you already have, because those who have been on the top for a decade or more will usually continue to be on the top. 
What if the MF starts performing badly?
Your SWP will take care of it. If it is not gaining more than you are withdrawing then slowly your investment in that MF will become zero after some time.
What if the MF starts doing better than others?
If it is making a lot more than what you are withdrawing with SWP then it shall keep growing and when you want to invest more and go to the steps 1,2,3 it will still be on top of the list and hence qualify for a new lot of investment in it.
If you are not spending all the SWP amount you get per month, do not invest it back into the MFs, always wait for the extra unused money that you have is worth 1kg24k gold. When it does, use the 4 step procedure to choose 3 MFs  in 3 segments and distribute that new investment in 1:1:1 ratio with an SWP of 1% of the principle. So, you are only allowed to adjust the SWP once in 5 years or you make a new investment in it.
This 4 step method ensures that, 
  1. your top performing MFs will always have more investment
  2. your least performing MFs will not get more investment
  3. If an MF is falling behind in pefromance, your SWP will ensure that you will get divested from it soon
investmennt areas

1/3rd of mine is pledged stocks where I generate some income with the said CSR strategy.
2/3rd is in MF. This is further divided into 1:1:1 amongst a flexicap, midcap, smallcap with a 1% SWP against each one of them.
No real estate, no houses, no farms, no restaurants, no businesses, no crypto, no nothing. In india, real estate scams are too many to count and our courts take decades to solve such things, can you fight in court against a real estate giant or fraud for a decade? I choose peace of mind over anything.

All together most of this setup is, setup once and forget it. I spend not more than a minute/day with investment or money. So this is how you spend a minute a day and sleep peacefully.

I have talked to too many authorised investment bankers, financial advisors, taken all the unsolicited calls from banks and nobody has been able to offer a better investment or retirement plan than this where one gets 40% CAGR and spends 1 minute a day to do it.

Disclaimer: This is how I do, It is no way an advice for you, I am neither authorised or qualified to be a financial adviser but this might act as a reference to you or if you have someone who is helping you with it, then you can discuss this with them. 

Saturday, November 16, 2024

FI1 - Hygiene certification

 You have certifications for food and products but none of them are agnostic. Kosher is jewish certification, halal is an islamic certification, jhatka certification is only for sikhs, then you have certifications and verification by each countries which are limited to a country or a geography. None of these have a reliable reverification of such standards by the consumer or the customer himself.

I propose:

1. Every corner of the kitchen & the cleaning area should have a camera supplied by us which is monitored & controlled only by an AI which streams all the cameras to a streaming service, 1 random camera at a time.

2. Each stream with it's anonymised name will have a bounty on it where users can make money by pointing out misses by the restaurant. These misses then will be used by the restaurants to improve their hygiene system & process. Restaurants with most such misses in a quarter or a year will lose its certificate and can only apply after a year. They have to buy the gear again when they get certified.

3. Such video footage gets auto deleted after 31 days. Clips of misses will be extracted and stored forever to train the AI to identify such misses.

4. optionally, food outlets have to use a light scanner to scan for pesticide recides from the ingredients. This is a very cheap gadget which is based on the fact that different pesticides are visible in different spectrum of light and reflect a specific spectrum of light. Such a PSAI (Pesticide Scanner with Artificial Intelligence) will give more confidence to customers.

This is a one time investment, small CAPEX, minimal fixed OPEX, unlimited market share, no competition (yet).

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Mushrooming streaming services and a solution

Which streaming services are you using? The big 5? What about some of those titles, shows, movies which are not on those subscription services? Do you have to upgrade to the max tier to get the full quality streaming or no? Are you sharing your logins with others? so that 5 of you can buy 1 services each and share with each other?

Sooner or later it will be a headache for consumers and they would rather use illegal downloads than subscribe to a streaming service only to get a delayed or degraded service. I am in india, many of the shows that I like are not available immediately in my country. When they are available, they are available in a degraded 720p [half HD] quality in an ugly rectangle box at the center of the screen. These streaming services many a times won't play in full resolution if the cable or the monitor or the graphics card that you have on your PC are not compatible or not the right ones (If you are watching on a laptop or PC). If you are using a television, many a times, many have faced a problem of not being able to watch it in a quality for which they have paid for, because the cable or the TV is not compatible. There are many artists, small indie movies struggle to put their movies on the streaming platforms because if they dont place it on the top streaming platforms, it is almost as good as invisible. Artists also end up losing a lot of money, sometimes streaming platforms overvalue a content and end up overbidding for some content. Solution?!

It is a very old solution. torrenting. yes. p2p. most of the cost of these OTT (streaming services) is the infrastructure. Each of these studios or group of artists can have a their own private torrent tracker. An opensource p2p client for the user. This client can subscribe to or add as many torrent sources as it wants. netflix/disney/hbo/prime torrent trackers and/or more. Let the user have a pay as you go model for this p2p client streaming app, charged per hour. Then let 99% of the money collected will be distributed amongst the torrent sources based on the number of hours or minutes their torrent tracker was used. Users can also get a discount if they let the p2p client use the user's network/storage for caching. Depending on what % of outgoing traffic the user's p2p client has contributed against what it has consumed, some discount can be given to the user. More people use this p2p client, less burden or work or load on the original content owner or creator.

This will definitely be cheaper, easier than illegal download or illegal torrenting. Today most users subscribe to 1 or 2 platforms, pirate the rest of the content from other platforms to which they haven't subscribed.

This p2p client has to be opensource, 1% of the user's money can go to it's development and maintenance. 

Thursday, July 20, 2023

Windows bluetooth crackling sound [cause, solution]

 So I had/have this issue with windows where bluetooth speakers start producing cracklintg/cracking sound for no reason. scraping the internet yielded no solution. Windows troubleshooter has solved no problem in all these years and that stays the same today. Here are the details:

Type of PC: laptop

make: 2023

Ram: 32GB

GPU: Integrated RTX4080

OEM: Asus

CPU: AMD

Wireless I/O devices:

  1. keychron k2 wireless keyboard (bluetooth)
  2. logitech m720 mouse (bluetooth)
  3. logitech g pro mouse  (2.4ghz unifying logi dongle, not bluetooth)
  4. harmon kardon aura studio 3 (bluetooth)

What didnt work?

  1. windows inbuilt troubleshooter
  2. driver update
  3. driver reinstall
  4. reinstall OS
  5. Unpair all bluetooth devices, uninstall, pair them again, update their drivers (via windows udpate driver)
  6. External USB bluetooth 5.0 dongle
What worked?
  1. Except bluetooth speaker and bluetooth keyboard, dont use any more bluetooth devices
Cause:
Theoretically bluetooth supports 6 to 7 bluetooth devices but in practice due to bandwidth throtting by OEMs & bandwidth limitation of the BT technology, if BT speakers are used, then use just 1 more BT device and not anymore.
So currently the 2 mice that I have from logitech, they both come with their proprietory dongle to connect with, it takes up 2 more USB ports on the laptop (So I bought a docking station) but at least it is headache free.
Suggestions to OEMs:
1. Make multi device bluetooth keyboards but which can be paired with mouse, so whenever I switch connection between devices, the mouse+keyboard switch together.
2. Make PC, Laptops support multiple bluetooth interfaces, just like multiple NIC/PCI/PCIe cards, and we can connect our devices to any of the BT interface in the OS.

Friday, May 26, 2023

Postgresql on cloud, self or hosted, if self then monolithic or k8s? which k8s operator?

 So I have been planning to move my django sites to kubernetes to get that automated horizontal and vertical scaling, failover, high availability, fault tolerance and other good stuff. Database on kubernetes has been a very huge topic of , to do or not to do...yes a year back, I would not have recommended it. Operators were just kicking in. Now many seem to have matured everyone has their own querks and problems.

Why not hosted?

There are many DBaaS. All cloud providers provide one. Many provide only DBaaS such as elephantSQL. What I am afraid about is freedom, loss of freedom. We all know what happened to parler.com, they got just booted off their cloud account, data gone, applications gone. One day their account just got locked out. So all these DBaaS providers do not offer replication, backup to intracloud target (that is, having a standby node on another competing cloud provider, or your own on prem server or an object storage from some other provider or a NAS server at home etc.,). Sure they provide headache free, automated, regular backup, PITR - point in time recovery, base backup, incremental backup, differential backup, standy node etc., You dont have to have a team of DB engineers who maintain it and do all these day 2 operations. You remember what happened to gitlab dont you? Engineer accidentally deleted their entire primary postgresql database. Yes, they did and they found out that the backups that they had were no good.  So you are outsourcing all your headache to someone else. This is good, but not enough.

I want to be able to have my backup or replication or DR solution on some other site, some other cloud provider or a target of my choice. 

Self hosted: Monolithic or k8s

If you go monolithic then I highly recomment citus. It is an extension, which allows you to scale, shard at will and it is a clustering solution so you get the HA. There are of course the OG solutions like perconi, patroni, EDB, many paid, free and opensource solutions. You do however have to learn all these implentations, do a POC in house, verify all DR options, test HA, FT before going for any of them.

Self hosted: k8s operator

I considered and evaluated

crunchydata

zalando

kubedb

stackgres

percona 

but went with cnpg aka cloud native postgresql operator. Why? because of the first 2 words. Cloud native. Everyone else is trying to adopt what has been tested in the monolithic world to kubernetes world to get that autoscaling, inbuild HA, FT, auto recovery options from k8s but they are built for cloud or k8s, they are adopted to cloud/k8s. cnpg is built for k8s. Also their documentation was a lot better than any of the top above,udpated and their example deployment manifests per different options, just work. 

So wish me luck. I hope all my django apps stay afloat and sail smoothly because their DB is sailing smoothly.